It’s my first blog and post – I’m excited. Who will read it, who will answer it and give me continuative ideas. Swiss-German is my native language, but I hope everybody will understand and forgive me some mistakes.
Managers are Dreamers
Today I would like to tell – and hopefully to discuss afterwards – some experiences with managers the last few weeks.
There is a big lamentation about the crisis, but the reaction is mostly old fashioned cash-management. Is it about missing creativity, blindness or missing knowledge how systems work? I’m not sure about.
In a way managers are dreamers. They dream of a manageable world and manageability means “predictable and controllable”. Success depends in their opinion on good managerial systems and instruments. That explains the boom of planning and controlling tools for strategy development and implementation.
The crisis is discussed like an accident, caused by some stakeholders. My discussion partners were sure, they couldn’t make such mistakes – they are the victims now.
I don’t know what’s needed those managers accept, that the future is not predictable and we can’t manage no more in the old understanding of control. Perhaps they fear the insight: If the future is not predictable, success will be accidental. They resist reflecting the underlining assumptions to find new solutions. In the past we called it “double loop learning”. Today managers try only to improve, but always within the same assumptions.
In a biotope a lake may be a buffering element. That means we can use the environment of the lake in an extensive way, nothing will happen. But one day the lake will be slurry and the whole biotope will be dead.
In the complex field of management we don’t know the buffering elements, we don’t know which elements will form feedback loops through interactions, producing new facts we didn’t expect.
That’s the reality of complexity. Complexity is not manageable in the traditional way, it is not controllable. We have do find ways to deal with complexity to improve the probability of success – without any guarantee.
Cash Management is fine, but
“Complexity causes businesses to change in fundamental ways. Entrepreneurs who aren't prepared won't know what hit them.” Jonathan Byrnes.
And that’s what happens in the crisis.
I would appreciate, if you gave me your opinion about the blog-topics and started to discuss such aspects. The next days I will concretize the matter.
Bye for now,
Willi
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in a way it seems to me that some managers start to thrive in face of the crisis: finally they can do a hard and effective job. let's manage! the price could be harsh (loosing the job) but at least there is something happening which asks to handle. I'm not sure if we will discover any fundamental orientation via crisis management. we will learn what we can do and if it worked. but probably we won't find out how to avoid such threatening events or to anticipate when they're appearing. or in other terms: actual management systems are systems which favor escalation and crisis management, it's a system of confrontation, cutting, top down communication. I know there is a lot of blackpainting in this - and I surely know that I don't have a recipee to change it. ideas?
ReplyDeleteDear Matthias, unfortunately you will be right. See the advise from McKinsey some weeks ago. the advise isn't wrong, but not the needed learning for the future:
ReplyDeleteUse hard times to concentrate on and strengthen your competitive advantage. If you are confused about this concept,
hard times will clarify it. Competitive advantage has two branches, both growing from the same root. You have a
competitive advantage when you can take business away from another company at a profit and when your cash costs of
doing business are low enough that you can survive in hard times.
Take advantage of hard times to buy the assets of distressed competitors at bargain-basement prices. The best assets
are competitive advantages unwisely encumbered with debt and clutter.
In hard times, many suppliers are willing to renegotiate terms. Don’t be shy. (Quarterly, Nov. 08)
There is no lerning regarding complexity.
Best,
Willi